By John Mullen
Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, calling it a “special military operation” intended to “denazify and demilitarize” the country. More than four years later, the war has become a prolonged and devastating conflict.
Russia's earlier invasion of Georgia and annexation of Crimea had already raised concerns across Europe about Vladimir Putin's ambitions. Many European nations came to view Ukraine as a critical test of whether Russia could expand its influence farther into Eastern Europe.
Ukraine Has Defied Russia’s Expectations
What Russia may have expected to accomplish in days has turned into years of fighting.
The Ukrainian people have demonstrated extraordinary determination in defending their country. Ukraine has also become a major innovator in drone warfare, using relatively inexpensive drones to attack Russian military equipment and infrastructure.
One of the striking lessons of the conflict is the ability of comparatively inexpensive drones to destroy extremely expensive military equipment, including tanks and other armored vehicles.
Ukraine has also conducted attacks against Russian energy infrastructure and military assets, demonstrating that modern warfare can reach deep behind traditional front lines.
The Cost to Russia
The human and economic costs of the war have been enormous.
Russia has increasingly relied on new recruits and outside assistance, including North Korean troops, as casualties among Russian forces have mounted. The continued need for additional manpower raises questions about the condition of Russia's military and the long-term sustainability of the conflict.
The war has also lasted longer than many expected, becoming one of Europe's most consequential conflicts since World War II.
It is worth remembering the lessons of the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan. That conflict became increasingly unpopular as casualties and costs mounted, eventually contributing to widespread public opposition.
One has to wonder whether Russian families and military leaders are asking similar questions today.
A War With No Easy Ending
President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to end the bloodshed and pursue negotiations. A negotiated settlement could potentially save the lives of Ukrainian civilians and the Russian soldiers being sent into an increasingly lethal battlefield.
Ukraine's experience has also demonstrated how quickly warfare is changing. Drones, precision weapons, intelligence, and technology are reshaping the modern battlefield, making traditional military advantages less decisive than they once were.
The ultimate question is how much longer Russia can sustain the enormous human, military, and economic costs of Putin's war.
For Ukraine, the goal remains survival and sovereignty. For Russia, the war may ultimately become a painful lesson about the enormous price of trying to conquer a determined neighbor.
